Review of the great gatsby

POL 330: Election Prediction assignment

Overview: Throughout this semester, we have focused on the structures and specific of the election process. Part of what makes elections so exciting is that sometimes it is extremely difficult to predict who is going to win in an election. The goal of this assignment is for you to hone your political analysis and to apply the concepts you are learning in this course to the real world. Please cite your sources. Submit an electronic copy of this assignment to Moodle by November 7 at 11:59 PM.

• Extra credit: Receive 3 points of extra credit for being closest to the actual result of the elections (2 points for 2^nd place and 1 point for third place).

What materials you will use:

• The course textbooks and supplemental readings. Chapters 5, 10, and 13 in Campaigns and Elections would be the most beneficial for this assignment.
• Google scholar
• Suggested election prediction sites and campaign information
  • The economist
  • Politico
  • 270 to win
  • Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball
  • Real Clear Politics
  • Cook Political Report
  • Five Thirty-Eight.com
  • BBC
  • New York Times
  • Washington Post
  • The Hill
  • CNBC
  • CNN
  • Federal Election Commission (for campaign funding information)
  • Other news sites

 

Specific questions: Write at least 6-8 ROBUST sentences for each question.

1. According to the course material and google scholar, what factors influence the outcomes of Senate and Congressional races? You may want to pay special attention to chapters 5, 10, and 13 in Campaigns and Elections by Sides, Shaw, Grossmann, and Lipsitz (one of the course textbooks).
2. Research and Predict: Research the following races and fill out the following races with your prediction for the candidate that you predict is going to win each race. Also, please pick the party that you think is going to win the House and the Senate. You do not need to write anything for this question—just fill in your predictions.

Senate 

Control of Chamber: (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party):_________

Which candidate will win the following US Senate Elections?:

1. Georgia____________
2. Nevada____________
3. Wisconsin___________
4. North Carolina_________
5. Ohio_____________
6. Arizona___________
7. Pennsylvania_________
8. Florida___________
9. New Hampshire________
10. Colorado___________

House:

 

Which party will control the House of Representatives Democratic Party or Republican Party: _________

By how much will the winner beat the loser in control over the chamber (take the total number of Majority Party seats minus the Minority’s number of seats): _____________.

 

3. Support for your decision Part 1: Pick ONE (predicted) CLOSE Senate race from above. Justify why you think this candidate is going to win based on real world information concerning the race. Please use both real-world sources AND your textbook to support your decision.
4. Support for your decision Part 2: Pick a (predicted) CLOSE Senate race from above (please pick a race you have not picked yet). Please justify why you think this candidate is going to win based on real world information concerning the race. Use both real-world sources AND your textbook to support your decision.
5. Support for your decision Part 3: Pick a ANY Senate race from above (Pick a race you haven’t picked yet). Justify why you think this candidate is going to win based on real world information concerning the race. Please use both real-world sources AND your textbook to support your decision.
6. Support for your decision Part 4-Senate Control Pick: Analyze your predicted Section Elections outcome (who will have control of the chamber and by how many Senators). Please justify why you think this party is going to win based on real world information concerning the various Senate races. Please use both real-world sources AND your textbook to support your pick.
7. Support for your decision Part 5- House Control Pick: Analyze your predicted House of Representative elections outcome (who will have control of the chamber and by how many members).Justify why you think this party is going to win based on real world information concerning the various House races. Use both real-world sources AND your textbook to support your decision.