## Compare the daily price series with the forecasted series and show how such forecasting may help the stakeholders (shareholders, bondholders) to make business/financial decisions .

Course Weight 30% Learning outcomes

• Collect, organize, analyze, interpret, summarize and report data using statistical sampling methods (LO2). • Examine, calculate and report on quantitative and or qualitative changes, patterns and relationships in business data (LO3).

• Analyse qualitative and quantitative data, make decisions and report on these decisions in a business environment (LO4). Task Forecasting time series data and decision making. Requirements

(1) Select any three stocks from the NZX 50 Index and download the daily closing prices (time series data) for a 3-year period (2017-2019) using judgement sampling (LO2)

(2) Graph the price series of the sampled stocks (line graph) (LO3) (3) Forecast the price data using the following techniques: (a) 3-year Simple Moving Average (b) 3 year Weighted moving Average and (c) Simple Exponential Smoothing (LO2, LO3).

(4) Compare the daily price series with the forecasted series and show how such forecasting may help the stakeholders (shareholders, bondholders) to make business/financial decisions (LO4).

(5) Write 600 words report highlighting your findings and advice to the stakeholders (LO4). Model Excel Template See the attached Time Series Forecasting A3 Excel File. This is only a model template and the actual calculation by students depends on the sampled data. Finalize A separate Excel spreadsheet for analysis and a separate 600-word report are required. Introduction (10 marks) Highlights clear background of theme of report Makes clear reference to the objective of report Explains the process of data collection, data organization (LO2) Sampling and database construction (10 marks) Explain clearly the sampling process and justifications and identifying the data patterns and relationships (LO3) Excel Spread Sheets with the time series data Analysis (25 Marks) Methods of forecasting and the justifications for their selection Appropriate methods of computation are described and justified (LO3, LO4). Findings (25 marks) Findings are correctly analyzed and examined(LO2). Links to theory and practice are clearly explained and reported (LO3). All recommendations are logical and justified Understands and critically evaluates supporting evidence / reference materials (LO4). Conclusion (10 marks) Summarizes the overall findings and recommendations clearly and succinctly (LO2,LO3,LO4) No new material is presented Format and Presentation (10 marks) Structure and format [*Mechanics – Spelling, punctuation, grammar, referencing and formatting] (LO2,LO3,LO4) Referencing and research (10 marks) Referencing style (APA) Meeting the academic English language criterion expected of level 08 students.