Forecasting Section of Aviation Planning Project:

Part 1: Historical Aeronautical Activity and Based Aircraft

This section provides a discussion of ISM’s historical activity levels to begin building a context for the forecast of aviation demand at the Airport. This section should describe the types and levels of aviation activity at the airport over the past 20 years. It should include tables and figures (think graphs) as appropriate. The tabulated data should include the number of based aircraft, the number of annual airport operations as applicable. Years to be referenced: 2000-2019 (omitting Covid historical years- 20/21 for purpose of this project)

Once you have this data, combine it in a table with years 2010-2019 and depict it (in excel) in graphical form. You should show at a minimum a graph of the previous 20 years of total operations at ISM and a graph of the previous 20 years of based aircraft at ISM.

Year	ISM		Southern Region		Florida
	Total Ops	Total BA	Total Ops	Total BA	Total Ops	Total BA
2010	120,826	175	22,384,855	30,816	7,636,144	10,919
2011	124,668	166	22,384,428	29,240	7,660,402	10,820
2012	120,962	135	22,249,158	30,156	7,712,381	11,279
2013	110,324	141	22,293,492	31,115	7,881,366	11,538
2014	85,708	147	22,137,200	32,143	7,867,890	11,822
2015	83,057	134	22,479,343	30,779	8,123,940	11,345
2016	83,527	134	22,085,051	33,028	8,186,968	11,983
2017	86,664	161	22,351,789	31,861	8,258,266	11,560
2018	102,532	155	22,842,618	30,827	8,623,420	10,746
2019	135,290	206	23,463,977	31,811	8,960,741	11,684

*Data retrieved from the FAA TAF; BA: Based Aircraft

(Reference 04-Forecasts_Final under reference materials for example)

Part 2: Forecast – Annual Operations, ADPM, Peak Hour, and Based Aircraft

This section should include a forecast of total annual operations for ISM for the years 2020 through to 2040. An operations forecast should be completed using a trend analysis for the 20-year planning period. For total future operations at ISM, use the 5-year trend average for your forecast calculations. In addition, develop forecast for the Average Day Peak Month and Peak Hour operation in the years 2020 and 2040. In the Year 2020 the peak month is August and is 10.5 percent of annual operations. In addition, peak hour operations are 12.0% percent of operations during the average day of the peak month. Lastly, forecast the based aircraft for 2020 through 2040 using trend analysis. Use the 10-year trend average to forecast the based aircraft.

 

For your based aircraft fleet mix, assume the following:

• 60% Single Engine
• 10 % Multi Engine
• 20% Jet
• 10% Rotorcraft (Helicopters)