Using Scenarios for Megaprojects
“Megaproject: Space Exploration”
Description
A number of space probes left Earth for planets in the past few years. One of the missions is estimated to cost £250m to £300m and it will become a European-built probe on a spacecraft touching down on another planet. The aim is always simple – to find evidence of life, past or present, on another planet. The mission carries scientific instruments that will study the geology of planets and search for water under the surface. Research institutes throughout Europe have provided the instruments. A consortium of more than 20 companies from more than a dozen European countries and the USA built the spacecraft. The spacecraft will fly around the target planet for an entire planet year. Scientists are confident that if water is present on the planet, the spacecraft with the probe will find it.
European scientists want the mission to:
- map the composition of the surface at 100-m resolution
- map the composition of the atmosphere and determine its global circulation
- determine the structure of the sub-surface to a depth of a few kilometres
- determine the effect of the atmosphere on the surface, and
- determine the interaction of the atmosphere with the solar wind
On landing, cameras on the probe’s robotic arm will take close-up images of soil and rocks to look for interesting specimens. The samples will be analysed for chemical signs of life using a package of instruments on the probe.
The Launch
The spacecraft carrying the probe will be launched from earth and placed on the right trajectory for the interplanetary voyage. If all goes well, the journey will take a few months.
Develop four Detailed SCENARIOS
Write down four (4)scenarios (of no less than 500 words each):
- Scenario A: the baseline scenario
- Scenario B: the best-case scenario
- Scenario C: the worst-case scenario
- Scenario D: an unthinkable, almost impossible …scenario
Of how the project will evolve and to what extent it will succeed in your view. Try to develop these scenarios with the use of research (internet, all kinds of data you can collect an analyse from all kind of sources ,etc) and a computeras here we are interested in your detailed thoughts and process of how such a megaproject may evolve. No matter how much analysis you do for every scenario, the end result will be 500 words of narrative and you can put any calculations or data in an appendix. Also, table of contents and References have to be in Harvard style.
At the end, in no less than 500 words describe the PROCESS you personally followed in order to derive the three scenarios
Develop the Scenarios
Scenario A: the baseline scenario (500 words)
Scenario B: the best-case scenario(500 words)
Scenario C: the worst-case scenario(500 words)
Scenario D: an unthinkable, almost impossible scenario(500 words)
PROCESS description (500 words):
