Time Series Assignment
1. Victor Anderson, the owner of Anderson Belts,Inc is studying absenteeism among his employees. His workforce is small, consisting of only 5 employees. For the last three years, he recorded the following for each quarter:
Quarters Year 1 2 3 4 17 4 10 7 3 18 5 12 9 4 19 6 16 12 4
Determine a seasonal index for each quarter using the ratio to moving average technique. You might want to use Excel – solution goes quickly, your call.
2. Employment for the past 4 quarters in a Colorado community is presented in the table. The SI’s are also provided. What is the trend in employment across the four quarters? Remember, employment has a large seasonal component.
Quarter 1 2 3 4 Employment 200 250 375 410 Seasonal Index 0.40 0.60 1.20 1.80
4. The planning department of Padgett and Kure Shoes,Inc., the manufacturer of an exclusive brand of women’s shoes, developed the following trend equation, in millions of pairs, based on five years of quarterly data.
Y’ = 1.75 X + 3.30
The following table gives the seasonal indices for each quarter.
Quarter 1 2 3 4 Index 1.10 1.20 0.80 0.90
Determine the seasonally adjusted forecast for each of the quarters of the sixth year.
5. The quarterly production of pine lumber, in millions of board feet, by Northwest Lumber in the recent past is presented in the table below.
Quarter Year Winter Spring Summer Fall 17 7.8 10.2 14.7 9.3 18 6.9 11.6 17.5 9.3 19 8.9 9.7 15.3 10.1
a. Determine the seasonal indices for each quarter.